A strong winter storm system will move across the Midwest from Wednesday on into Christmas Day. This system will tap into a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By 7pm Wednesday night, precipitation will be over Illinois and Iowa. The bulk of this system will be to the west of Indiana. When the precipitation arrives, the critical freezing level will be well north. This means that the precipitation will start off as liquid. As it fall through the colder air mass at the surface, it will refreeze. It could be in the form of sleet or freezing rain. As the surface temperature climbs above the freezing mark, the precipitation will change over to just rain. But before that happens, some ice accumulations will be possible.

The WRF model is very similar to the GFS. Northeast Indiana will see mainly snow showers on Wednesday night while Northwest Indiana will experience freezing rain and sleet.

The map below shows the areas of snow in magenta, freezing rain in the blue and rain in green. At 1pm Wednesday, the system should be bringing just snow into northern Indiana, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

By Wednesday at 5pm, freezing rain and ice (in the red) along with snow, will be possible in northern Indiana.

By Wednesday at 7pm, better chances of freezing rain move into northern Indiana.

Alberta Clipper Arrives Tonight

More snow showers will be likely tonight, mainly during the overnight. An Alberta Clipper system will slide down into central Indiana tonight, bringing northern Indiana another inch or two of snow into Monday morning.

After this system moves through, a few flurries will be possible on Monday. Otherwise, there will be a couple of days with dry and sunny conditions. By Thursday though, some changes arrive. Of course it is Christmas Eve so holiday travels may be difficult. The GFS has it tracking mainly north of our area, which means will be be on the south side of this system. As it pushes in, the upper levels will be above freezing. As the precipitation arrives, it will be liquid. The air temperature at the surface will be near or slightly above freezing by Thursday afternoon. So, the question will be what kind of precipitation will we see out of this storm?

The Canadian model also has a similar track.

The critical thickness line will be north of the area by Christmas Eve night. Freezing rain changing over to just rain will be a possibility.

Then it will change over to some snow showers by Christmas Day. With around 4 inches of snow in Northeastern Indiana, some snow will remain in place by Christmas with more to come on Christmas day.

A White Christmas?

Chances of snow move back in to the forecast by Friday. A clipper system will arrive by Friday night, bringing a burst of snow during the overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Only minor accumulations are possible.

Saturday will be mainly quiet with a few snow showers moving back in by Saturday night.

With cold temperatures into next week, any snow this weekend will likely remain in place for Christmas. But check it out- another systems looks to move in by Christmas Eve morning. This is still very early right now, but right now, it looks like accumulating snowfall will be possible.

I'll continue to monitor this system to see if we will indeed, have a white Christmas!

Mild for another day before cold air returns

Another mild day today with highs in the low 40's. The wind will be out of the south from 10 to 15 mph. Light drizzle will be possible into this evening

Any left over precipitation by Tuesday morning will be in the form of snow. The 540 line will be well south of the area by morning with the surface temperature falling into the upper 20's.

Much colder air moves in by Wednesday morning, as temperatures fall into the low to mid teens!
The cold snap will be short lived as more seasonal temperatures return by the end of the week. Looking out to Christmas- looks like it could be a white one! Below is Wednesday night, the day before Christmas Eve. An area of low pressure will bring snow into the area!

Slow Improvement

The weekend will start off with quiet conditions. Temperatures will be moderate- near normal in the mid 30's. By late day, another systems will move in. The question will be- what kind of precipitation will arrive? It should arrive by 7am.

Temperatures will be well below freezing at the surface- likely falling into the low 20's by morning.

But the critical thickness line will be to the north of our northern Indiana when the precip arrives.

The precipitation will start off as liquid in the upper levels. It will then fall into the colder dense air at the surface. This could be freezing rain by Sunday morning. Below, you can see the blues representing freezing rain. It will likely change over to rain by late morning.

First Winter Storm System of the Season

A deepening area of low pressure will move across the state tonight into tomorrow. As the system approaches, precipitation will start off as snow in Northern Indiana. The warmer air will slide over the cold wedge of dense air at the surface. This will cause the precipitation to shift as snow- but as it falls through the colder air near the surface, it will may refreeze as sleet or freeze as it strikes the surface. This wintry mix should be a short lived situation, as the surface rises above the freezing mark. The precip will change back to just rain, possibly heavy rain with even an isolated thunderstorm possible. The rain will continue into Wednesday morning and then shift back into snow showers by mid Wednesday morning. The wind will really be picking up with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts could be around 50 mph.